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The Reciprocal Failure The UK-France Migration Deal and the Return of the Deported

Monday, 10 November 2025 14:11

Summary

The 'one in, one out' migration pilot, a flagship policy agreed between the UK and France in July 2025, is facing intense scrutiny following the confirmed return of two migrants who had previously been deported under the scheme. Designed to deter dangerous small boat crossings by creating a reciprocal returns mechanism, the policy allows the UK to send irregular arrivals back to France in exchange for accepting an equal number of vetted asylum seekers with family links to Britain. Despite the government's insistence that the immediate detention of the returnees proves the system is working, the policy's limited scale—with fewer than 100 people returned against a backdrop of nearly 39,000 Channel arrivals in 2025—has led critics to dismiss it as an ineffective deterrent. The personal testimony of one returnee, who claimed to have fled modern slavery in France, highlights the complex humanitarian and legal challenges that undermine the policy's core objective.

The New Architecture of Deterrence

The 'one in, one out' pilot scheme, formally agreed between the United Kingdom and France in July 2025, was presented as a groundbreaking diplomatic solution to the persistent crisis of small boat crossings in the English Channel3,14. The agreement, a central pillar of the UK government’s strategy to manage irregular migration, established a reciprocal mechanism for the first time since the UK’s departure from the European Union5,16. Under the terms of the treaty, the UK gained the legal basis to detain and return irregular migrants who arrived by small boat to France, which the UK considers a safe third country5,11. In exchange for each person returned, the UK committed to accepting one asylum seeker from France through a new, controlled legal route3,14. This legal pathway is strictly limited to individuals who have not previously attempted an illegal crossing and can demonstrate a genuine family link to the UK3,16. The stated objective of the policy was to break the business model of people-smuggling gangs by demonstrating that the perilous journey across the Channel would ultimately be in vain14,16. The pilot was initially expected to operate on a small scale, with reports suggesting a target of up to 50 returns per week, a number that represents a minor fraction of the total annual arrivals10,11. The treaty was ratified and came into force in August 2025, with the first removals taking place in September5,13.

A Flood Against a Trickle

The operational reality of the scheme has been immediately overshadowed by the sheer volume of people continuing to make the Channel crossing17. By September 7, 2025, the total number of small boat arrivals for the year had already surpassed 30,000, reaching that milestone earlier than in any previous year since data collection began in 201812. By November 9, 2025, the cumulative total of arrivals for the year stood at 38,726, exceeding the 36,816 recorded for the entirety of 20243,6. This surge in crossings has continued even as the returns policy was implemented7. In a three-day period between November 6 and 8, 2025, more than 1,700 people successfully made the journey, highlighting the persistent operational challenge7,9. Against this backdrop, the number of migrants returned to France under the 'one in, one out' pilot has remained small13. As of late October and early November 2025, the UK had removed between 75 and 94 irregular migrants to France5,13. In the reciprocal part of the deal, the UK had accepted between 51 and 57 approved asylum seekers from France through the new legal route5,13. Critics have seized on this disparity, arguing that the policy is failing to act as a meaningful deterrent13. The Conservative opposition leader, Kemi Badenoch, and other critics have characterised the scheme as a 'total abject failure,' noting that thousands of people have crossed since the deal was announced4,13. The government, however, has maintained that the policy is a long-term strategy that will be scaled up, with the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, stating that the returns send a clear warning to those considering an illegal entry5,13.

The Circular Journey of the Returnees

The most significant challenge to the policy’s credibility emerged not from the overall numbers, but from the individual cases of those who were returned7. The first confirmed instance of a migrant returning to the UK after being deported under the scheme involved an Iranian man5. He had initially arrived in the UK on August 6, 2025, and was subsequently returned to France on September 19, becoming one of the first individuals removed under the new treaty5,7. Less than a month later, on October 18, he successfully made the Channel crossing again in a small boat and was detained upon arrival5,7. The man claimed that he had been a victim of modern slavery at the hands of people smugglers in northern France, stating that he did not feel safe in France and was afraid for his life4. He alleged that smugglers had forced him to work, abused him, and threatened him with weapons4. Following his second arrival, the UK government expedited his case, and he was deported to France for a second time in early November 20255,7. The Home Office defended the process, arguing that the immediate detection and re-removal proved the system was functioning as intended19. A second migrant who had been removed to France under the pilot scheme also returned to the UK on a small boat on November 10, 20257. This individual was also identified using biometrics and detained immediately, with officials confirming that his removal would be expedited7. The French Interior Ministry has countered claims of unsafe conditions, asserting that returnees are accommodated while their cases are assessed4. Nevertheless, the repeated return of deported individuals has provided powerful ammunition for critics who argue that the policy is not a deterrent but merely a revolving door4.

The Deterrent Effect and Legal Limbo

The fundamental premise of the 'one in, one out' policy rests on the concept of deterrence, aiming to discourage irregular crossings by removing the perceived benefit of reaching British soil14,16. However, the effectiveness of deterrence in migration policy is a subject of considerable debate among experts11. Critics argue that policies which close off legal avenues for asylum seekers often force people into more dangerous and irregular routes, thereby empowering the very smuggling networks the policy aims to dismantle11,14. The limited scope of the legal route offered by the scheme further complicates its deterrent potential11. Only those with close family ties in the UK and who have not previously attempted an illegal crossing are eligible, excluding the vast majority of people making the journey10,16. Furthermore, individuals returned to France face a complex legal situation11. While France is considered a safe third country, the returnees are placed back into the French asylum system, which may not be their desired destination or one where they feel secure, as evidenced by the testimony of the Iranian man4. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) welcomed the announcement of the pilot, provided that its implementation upheld access to asylum, ensuring that those transferred back to France would have the possibility to claim asylum there15. However, the practical and humanitarian concerns raised by the returnees’ actions suggest that for some, the perceived risks of a second Channel crossing are outweighed by the conditions or dangers they face in northern France4. The political pressure on the UK government remains intense, with the rising number of arrivals and the high-profile returns placing the policy under continuous scrutiny17.

Conclusion

The 'one in, one out' pilot scheme represents a significant diplomatic achievement for the UK government, establishing a post-Brexit returns mechanism with a major European partner5,16. Yet, its initial months of operation have exposed a profound gap between political ambition and operational reality17. The policy’s limited scale, with fewer than 100 returns against tens of thousands of arrivals, has failed to stem the flow of small boats, which continues to set new records3,13. The return of deported individuals, particularly the Iranian man who cited fear of modern slavery in France, has transformed the policy from a matter of statistics into a narrative of human desperation and the limits of deterrence4,7. While the government maintains that the immediate re-detention of returnees validates the system’s integrity, the fact that people are willing to risk their lives and money for a second crossing suggests that the policy has not achieved its primary goal of breaking the smugglers’ business model5,19. The long-term success of the scheme will depend not only on its ability to scale up returns, but also on whether the French asylum system is perceived as a genuinely safe and viable alternative by those seeking refuge, a perception that the recent events have severely undermined4,11.

References

  1. Another 503 migrants cross Channel in small boats in single day | The Independent

    Provides the most recent total number of small boat arrivals for 2025 (38,726 as of Nov 9) and details of the recent surge in crossings, which is essential for context.

  2. Man sent to France under 'one in, one out' scheme returns to UK on small boat | Immigration and asylum | The Guardian

    Contains the crucial narrative detail of the first returnee, including his claim of modern slavery and fear for his life in France, as well as the French government's counter-statement and political reaction from critics.

  3. UK small boat migrant sent back to France for 2nd time - Anadolu Ajansı

    Provides specific dates for the first returnee's multiple crossings and deportations (Aug 6, Sept 19, Oct 18, early Nov), the total numbers returned (94) and accepted (57) as of early November, and the Home Secretary's official statement.

  4. UK-France treaty targeting illegal crossings comes into force - GOV.UK

    Confirms the ratification of the treaty in August 2025, providing the legal basis for the scheme, and reiterates the core principle of the exchange.

  5. UK Sees Nearly 50% Surge in Migrant Arrivals by Small Boats in 2025 | WION - YouTube

    Confirms the 2025 arrival figure surpassing the 2024 total (36,816) and provides context on the surge in crossings.

  6. Second small boat migrant sent back to France under 'one in, one out' deal returns to UK

    Confirms the return of the second migrant on November 10, 2025, the immediate detention, and the plan for re-removal, as well as the 1,700 crossings between Nov 6-8.

  7. Small boat arrivals: last 7 days - GOV.UK

    Provides the daily breakdown of small boat arrivals for early November 2025, confirming the surge in crossings.

  8. Everything You Need to Know About the UK-France 'One-In, One-Out' Asylum Deal

    Details the initial scope of the pilot (up to 50 per week) and the eligibility criteria for the legal route, including the family link requirement.

  9. UK's 'one in, one out' policy: deterrence over protection - The Unmistakables

    Provides expert analysis on the concept of deterrence in migration policy, the risks of closing off legal routes, and the humanitarian concerns raised by the policy.

  10. What is the 'one in one out' asylum deal between UK and France? | ITV News

    Confirms the date the 30,000 crossing mark was passed in 2025 (September 7) and details the process of referral and response between the UK and French authorities.

  11. More than 70 migrants returned to France under 'one in, one out' scheme | UK News

    Provides the number of returns (75) and acceptances (51) as of October 31, 2025, and includes the critical political criticism regarding the lack of deterrent effect.

  12. Trial UK and France 'one in, one out' scheme designed to curb migrant boat crossings to start within weeks – as it happened - The Guardian

    Details the initial announcement of the scheme in July 2025, the Prime Minister's stated goal of breaking the smugglers' model, and the immediate scepticism from refugee charities.

  13. UK and France agree 'one in, one out' pilot scheme to allow return of asylum seekers crossing the Channel by small boat | Electronic Immigration Network

    Confirms the core mechanism of the deal and includes the positive, yet conditional, statement from the UNHCR regarding the upholding of asylum access.

  14. Starmer and Macron detail one in, one out migrant returns scheme | The Standard

    Reinforces the political framing of the scheme as a deterrent and confirms the core exchange mechanism and the requirement for the legal route applicants to not have tried to enter illegally.

  15. Record Channel Crossings Test UK's New 'One In, One Out' Asylum Deal With France

    Provides context on the political scrutiny and the juxtaposition of the small number of returns against a record-breaking day of arrivals.

  16. Migration chaos as 1500 asylum seekers cross Channel since Thursday - Daily Express

    Includes the Home Office's defence of the system, claiming the speed of identification and removal of the returnee proves the system is working.